An overview of the present climate in the tropical South Pacific Islands, with an outlook for the coming months, to assist in dissemination of climate information in the Pacific region
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
ENSO conditions are in the neutral range in the Equatorial PacificOcean. Many dynamical and statistical climate models suggest ENSO neutral conditions will exist during spring, with a possibility of La Niña resurgence or neutral conditions during summer.
Summary of tropical cyclone activity for 2010 -11 season
Nine tropical cyclones (TCs) occurred in the SW Pacific region thisseason, with an estimated cost of damages exceeding $3.5 Billion USD.
The tropical Pacific remains in an ENSO–neutral state,with most signs of the preceding La Niña event having dissipated. However, recent developments suggest a possible resurgence of La Niña conditions, at least temporarily.
The tropical cyclone season for 2010–11 has now closed.The ICU forecast for this season inidcated normal or above normal tropical cyclone (TC) activity for most islands west of the International Date Line in the southwest Pacific, with reduced activity east of the International Date Line due to La Niña conditions in the equatorial and tropical Pacific.
Suppressed convection is expected in the southwestPacific near Tuvalu, Tokelau, the Tuamotu Archipelago, the Northern Cook Islands, and Samoa.
Sources of South Pacific rainfall data
